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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."