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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest upset.

However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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